Friday, November 1, 2013

Assignment #3: Birth Rate & Ideology



1. Christina Vasiliou


Predominantly Catholic Countries

Ireland
·      87.4% Roman Catholic
·      Birth Rate: 15.5 births/1,000 population
·      Total Fertility Rate: 2.01 children/woman
·      Infant Mortality Rate: 3.78 deaths/1,000 live births
·      Life Expectancy: 80.44 years
·      Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: 64.8% (as of 2004/2005)
·      School Life expectancy: 19 years
·      GDP per capita: $42,600

Panama
·      85% Roman Catholic
·      Birth Rate: 18.91 births/1,000 population
·      Total Fertility Rate: 2.4 children/woman
·      Infant Mortality Rate: 11.01 deaths/1,000 live births
·      Life Expectancy: 78.13 years
·      Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: 52.2% (as of 2009)
·      School Life expectancy: 13 years
·      GDP per capita: $15,900

France
·      83-88% Roman Catholic
·      Birth Rate: 12.6 births/1,000 population
·      Total Fertility Rate: 2.08 children/woman
·      Infant Mortality Rate: 3.34 deaths/1,000 live births
·      Life Expectancy: 81.56 years
·      Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: 76.4% (as of 2008)
·      School Life expectancy: 16 years
·      GDP per capita: $36,100

Haiti
·      80% Roman Catholic
·      Birth Rate: 23.35 births/1,000 population
·      Total Fertility Rate: 2.88 children/woman
·      Infant Mortality Rate: 50.92 deaths/1,000 live births
·      Life Expectancy: 62.85 years
·      Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: 34.5%
·      School Life expectancy: not available
·      Literacy: 48.5% (age 15+)
·      GDP per capita: $1,300

Colombia
·      90% Roman Catholic
·      Birth Rate: 16.98 births/1,000 population
·      Total Fertility Rate: 2.1 children/woman
·      Infant Mortality Rate: 15.46 deaths/1,000 live births
·      Life Expectancy: 75.02 years
·      Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: 79.1%
·      School Life Expectancy: 14 years
·      GDP per capita: $11,000

Bolivia
·      95% Roman Catholic
·      Birth Rate: 23.77 births/1,000 population
·      Total Fertility Rate: 2.87 children/woman
·      Infant Mortality Rate: 39.76 deaths/1,000 live births
·      Life Expectancy: 68.22 years
·      Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: 60.5% (as of 2008)
·      School Life Expectancy: 14 years
·      GDP per capita: $5,200

Outgroup

Japan
·      2% Christianity
·      Birth Rate: 8.23 births/1,000 population
·      Total Fertility Rate: 1.39 children/woman
·      Infant Mortality Rate: 2.17 deaths/1,000 live births
·      Life Expectancy: 84.19 years
·      Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: 54.3% (as of 2005)
·      School Life Expectancy: 15 years
·      GDP per capita: $36,900

Mongolia
·      Less than 5% Roman Catholic
·      Birth Rate: 20.34 births/1,000 population
·      Total Fertility Rate: 2.18 children born/woman
·      Infant Mortality Rate: 34.78 deaths/1,000 live births
·      Life Expectancy: 68.95 years
·      Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: 55%
·      School Life Expectancy: 14 years
·      GDP per capita: $5,500

Ethiopia
·      .7% Catholic
·      Birth Rate: 38.07 births/1,000 population
·      Total Fertility Rate: 5.31 children born/woman
·      Infant Mortality Rate: 58.28 deaths/1,000 live births
·      Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: 28.6% (as of 2010/2011)
·      School Life Expectancy: 9 years
·      GDP per capita: $1,200

Many conclusions can be made from examining this data collected about predominantly Catholic countries and comparing it to countries that are not predominantly Catholic.  All of the predominantly Catholic countries have Catholic populations ranging from 80% (Haiti) to 95% (Bolivia); however, the birth rates and total fertility rates have a much wider range.  This immediately shows that even within heavily Catholic populated countries some have much higher birth rates than others, so Catholicism does not inherently lead to high birth rates.  It would be expected that contraceptive use would be low in all predominantly Catholic countries because birth control is prohibited in Catholicism.  The reality is though, that contraceptive use varies between these countries as well, with France having a rate of 76.4% using birth control during childbearing ages.  This is a surprisingly high percentage for a population that is 83-88% Catholic.  Additionally, Columbia has a contraceptive prevalence rate of 79.1% and a Catholic population of 90%.  Haiti has the lowest contraceptive rate (of the countries evaluated) at 34.5% and has the lowest Catholic population (of the countries evaluated) at 80%.  Clearly, acceptance of Catholicism does not immediately lead to high birth rates due to refusal to use contraception. 
Other more relevant evidence of why birth rates are increased in some Catholic countries over others is probably the infant mortality rate.  If the infant mortality rate is very high, the birth rate must be higher in order to “absorb” the high mortality rate and sustain a population.  High infant mortality rates are typically seen in the less developed countries (in my evidence, Haiti and Bolivia have very high rates, 50.92 deaths/1,000 live births and 39.76 deaths/1,000 live births, respectively).  Less developed countries have less resources and a lower standard of living that is not conducive to caring for infants.  Additionally, without technology such as vaccines that are much more readily available in developed countries, infant mortality rates increase.

This supports the conclusion that one of the most telltale signs of whether there will be a high birth rate, high infant mortality rate, and high total fertility rate is not the predominance of Catholicism but the GDP of the country.  The GDP is a sign of the development of the country, which is also telling of the standard of living, availability of resources, education levels, and the average life span of individuals.  Less developed countries lacks the developed technology that developed countries have that allow humans to live longer and live in better conditions.  Haiti is an example of a country that has a GDP per capita of $1,300, which is very low and labels Haiti an underdeveloped country.  The infant mortality rate is thus very high and the average life span is relatively low.  This equates to having a higher birth rate to try to “absorb” these losses and sustain a population.  It is fair to conclude that these high birth rates and lack of contraceptive use are not a reflection of the predominance of Catholicism in the country but instead a reflection of the lack of development and technology in the country.  Additionally, some of the non-predominantly Catholic data can be used to support this.  Ethiopia has (somewhat) comparable numbers to Haiti (in birth rate, average life span, infant mortality rate, contraceptive use, and GDP) but has a .7% Catholic population (their only main difference).  This supports the conclusion of undeveloped countries having higher birth rates and more developed countries having lower birth rates regardless of the predominance of Catholicism.

2. Lyndsay Aronson (admin)
To examine whether or not Catholic prohibition of contraceptives really influence birth rate, I examined 9 countries total, 6 with a Catholic majority and 9 with a Catholic minority (under 5% guideline, however these countries have less than 1% of Catholics). Just immediately looking at the contraceptive prevalence rate in the predominantly catholic countries, it is clear that even though their religion may mandate the abstinence from contraceptives, most do not practice what the church preaches. It is clear that higher birth rates are more prevalent in countries with a low GDP per capita (and a higher poverty percentage) and a high infant mortality rate, keeping in line with the R/K selection theory. In countries like these, people are more likely to have more offspring because they have (relatively) shorter lifespans and therefore less time to reproduce; they have less stable resources to care for their children in an unstable environment which translates into less certainty that offspring will survive – so it makes more sense from an evolutionary perspective to bear more children. In countries with a higher GDP per capita (i.e. wealthier nations), the education level is generally higher as well and the infant mortality rate is lower, meaning that its citizens take longer to reproduce (usually focusing on careers, schooling, or other tasks that take priority over settling down) and have fewer children, choosing to invest more of their limited, yet stable, resources into their offspring – and the chances that their children will survive is much higher.

3. IYAH TURMINI
 DATA:

Nations with High Percentage of Roman Catholicism (65% or higher):

1. Italy: → DEVELOPED



90% Roman Catholic

9.18 births/1000

Life expectancy: 81.7 years

Infant mortality: 3.38 deaths/1000

Population under poverty line: 19.6%

2. Spain: → DEVELOPED



96% Roman Catholic

10.66 births/1000

Life expectancy: 81.2 years

Infant mortality: 3.39 deaths/1000

Population under poverty line: 21.1%

3. Mexico: → UNDERDEVELOPED



76.5% Roman Catholic

19.13 births/1000

Life expectancy: 76.5 years

Infant mortality: 17.29 deaths /1000

Population under poverty line: 51.3%



 4. Poland → DEVELOPED

89.8% Roman Catholic

9.88 births/1000

Life expectancy: 76.45 years

Infant mortality: 6.3 deaths/1000

Population under poverty line: 10.6% 



5. Philippines → UNDERDEVELOPED

80.9% Roman Catholic

24.62 births/1,000

Life expectancy: 72.21 years 

Infant mortality: 18.19 deaths/1,000 live births

Population under poverty line: 26.5%



6. Ireland → DEVELOPED



87.4% Roman Catholic

15.5 births/1000

Life expectancy: 80.44 years

Infant mortality: 3.78 deaths/1000

Population under poverty line: 5.5%

Non-Catholic (less than 5%) countries without a major religion prohibiting/

encouraging birth control:

7. Israel → DEVELOPED 

1.5% Roman Catholics

18.71 births/1,000 population

Life expectancy: 81.17 years

Infant mortality: 4.03 deaths/1,000

Population under poverty line: 23.6%

8. India → UNDERDEVELOPED

1.58% Roman Catholic

20.24 births/1000

Life expectancy: 74.99 years

Infant mortality: 15.2 /1000

Population under poverty line: 29.8%

9. Japan → DEVELOPED

0.4% Roman Catholic

8.23 births/1,000 

Life expectancy: 84.19 years

Infant mortality: 2.17 deaths/1,000

Population under poverty line: 16%

ANALYSIS:

For the high percentage Roman Catholic grouping of countries, I examined Mexico, 

Italy, Poland, Ireland, the Philippines, and Spain. For the low percentage (less than 5%) Roman 

Catholic grouping of countries, which featured no religion/governmental policy strongly 

promoting or prohibiting the use of birth control, I chose to look at Israel, India, and Japan. The 

statistical variables that I used, courtesy of the CIA World Factbook, were life expectancy, infant 

mortality, and poverty.

From an examination of the first six countries, all of which have a relatively high 

percentage of the population (over 65%) identifying as Roman Catholic, it would seem that 

Catholicism on its own doesn’t seem to have a strong correlation with higher birth rates. 

Variables of higher infant mortality, higher poverty levels, and relatively lower life expectancy 

rates appear to correlate much more closely with the incidence of higher birth rates than 

religious belief. These variables are all correlated with underdevelopment in a country, and 

indeed, the two high percentage Roman Catholic countries which demonstrated these statistical 

variables, the Philippines and Mexico, were the only two categorized as underdeveloped. In 

Poland, Ireland, Spain and Italy, birth rates were significantly lower than in Mexico and the 

Philippines. These countries also feature lower infant mortality rates, lower poverty rates, and 

longer life expectancies. Not coincidentally, these are all countries that fallen into the category of 

being developed. These trends held when I compared the same statistical variable in the 

contexts of Israel, India, and Japan. In the developed countries, Israel and Japan, the birth rate 

was significantly lower than in India, which is considered underdeveloped. None of these 

countries have a large percentage of the population practicing Roman Catholicism, or any other 

religion/governmental initiative which strongly promoted or prohibited the use of birth control. 

I would conclude that high percentages of Catholicism, while not insignificant in their 

correlation to the birth rates of their respective countries, do not correlate as strongly with 

higher birth rates as the statistical variables indicative of underdevelopment like higher poverty, 

higher infant mortality, and lower life expectancy. So, although there are technologically 

conservative prohibitions within Catholic populations, these don’t seem to be reflected in 

behavior. As discussed in class, underdeveloped countries feature higher birth rates because the 

population is attempting to compensate for the high rates of infant mortality, increasing the 

chances of survival for some of the above average (when compared to developed countries) 

numbers of children born. In developed countries, the infant mortality rates are significantly 

lower and parents do not feel the need to have more children to compensate for those that might 

not reach maturity. 

A few things of note: While India’s birth rate remains remarkably high, it has, in fact, 

been reduced by half in the last 40+ years. Initiatives undertaken between the 1970s and early 

2000s resulted in a more than 30% increase in the use of birth control by women. Also, in Japan 

the birth rate is conversely remarkably low. This has been attributed, among other things, to the 

low marriage rate, later occurrence of marriage, and very low incidence of out-of-wedlock births 

(around 50% lower than that of the United States and among the lowest in the entire world). 

The final thing I would mention is that high percentages of those identifying as Roman Catholics 

doesn’t equate to equally high percentages of those actively practicing Roman Catholicism. It 

could be that those countries that feature more active practice of the religion of identification 

might also be those countries that feature higher rates of birth and adherence to birth control 

prohibitions. Just sayin’.

4. Lucy Ni

5. Laura O'Neill

6. Virginia Lam





7. LARA SARKISSIAN